Originally posted by hydragoat: Girls, girls, girls.
The USA is self-sufficent in food. Most food that you eat is NOT imported.
It could easily be self-sufficient in most primary goods and all manufactured goods.
So the only things that a lower dollar would cause are higher gas prices.
If German or Japanese or Korean cars are too pricey get an American car.
If imported electronic junk that you renew every year or every other year are too high. Support a local manufacture and keep the stuff for ten years and get it repaired locally.
The price of Caribbean vacations, African safaris and European wine, castle and cathedral tours are too high. Stay home.
The USA is not Bengladesh or Zimbabwe.
Eventually, in priciple, a lower dollar favors exports and hinders imports. Ask the globalization gurus.
Oh sure, Hydragoat...After all, food just transports itself right to my plate everyday. You forget that there are manufacturing processes, transport and also other factors that relate specifically to food. That is only speaking about food. Now, say you cannot afford fuel, therefore cannot afford to commute to work, then what?
Everyone sell your gold, hydragoat has solved the currency puzzle.
"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." George Washington
Posts: 5203 | Location: Ohio | Registered: July 20, 2007
Oh sure, Hydragoat...After all, food just transports itself right to my plate everyday.
Have your wife take a bicycle or the bus to the supermarket.
But, I am serious when I say that a weaker dollar is precisely what is needed to stimulate exports. Unfortunately the "made-in-USA" brand name sucks. The day that Levis started being made in China was the day we should have woken up.
All we have is Harley Davison and...and...and...I'll get back to you.
Girls, Girls, Girls.....LMAO. How simplistic is his view. So what if the dollar crashes, we'll just circle our wagons and ride it out is his theory. Well, when you have to empty your savings account to buy a tank of gas, or millions are homeless becuase they can't afford rent or a house payment, or nobody can afford insurance on anything, or can't afford to pay for healthcare, or businesses are laying off multi-millions becuase they can't afford employees, or our government can't operate becuase it's broke, or people's lifelong savings are now worth nil.....then we'll see just how simplistic your view is.
Most of what you point to are still luxuries, i.e., vacations, electronics, imported cars, etc. "The only thing a low dollar would affect is gasoline prices", LOL, you're kidding right?
What exactly do we manufacture in this country? Very little that's what....90% of our consumer goods are imported, and without manufacturing what do we have to offer the world.....NOTHING !!! It's like someone mentioned, China holds "trillions" of dollars of our debt and without us manufacturing anything they want, how exactly are we supposed to pay off that debt? What happens when these countries that have us by the balls call in that debt, what then?
You fail to realize just how serious this problem of a failing dollar is. When the dollar is not even worth the paper it's printed on, it's pretty damn serious. Stop and think just what is affected by a dollar that is worthless...EVERYTHING, from a stick of gum to to the homes we live in and all in between.
Add to that the fact that a failing dollar means we have no money to purchase all those consumer goods and you have a country full of people without, PERIOD !!! You can't just turn on and manufacture in a heartbeat, besides where will the money come from for startup? It's just too late, we're all on a midnight train with no station where we can get off, and it's headed nowhere FAST !!!
You are right about one thing...the USA is not Bangladesh or Zimbabwe, we're soon to be Antarctica. The only hope we have is that this whole scenario does not happen anytime soon, but I'm afraid that it will.
Wait..........you skipped the day that they taught basic money principles, right.
"Laissez les bon temps rouler" (for now)
Posts: 1177 | Location: Tiger Country USA | Registered: August 06, 2008
When it has happened in other places, grocery store shelves were always empty because food prices skyrocketed every day and everyone wanted to buy everything up before the price quadrupled the next day. It turned into food lines and money with expiration dates. Hyperinflation is really the worst possible scenario. It's even worse than depression.
BTW, I'm pretty sure China holds $800 Billion in US bonds, not 2 trillion. Perhaps you guys are counting something that I am not?
"Let's stop the hysterics about the freedom of Cubans – which is not our government's responsibility – and consider freedom of the American people, which is. The point being: it is Americans who live in a free country, and as free people we should choose whom to buy from or where to travel – not our government."
-Ron Paul
Posts: 590 | Location: Northern NJ/East Hampton, NY | Registered: December 21, 2003
Oh sure, Hydragoat...After all, food just transports itself right to my plate everyday.
Have your wife take a bicycle or the bus to the supermarket.
But, I am serious when I say that a weaker dollar is precisely what is needed to stimulate exports. Unfortunately the "made-in-USA" brand name sucks. The day that Levis started being made in China was the day we should have woken up.
All we have is Harley Davison and...and...and...I'll get back to you.
You don't have a clue what we are in for, I mean you really don't get it.
"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." George Washington
Posts: 5203 | Location: Ohio | Registered: July 20, 2007
Well, when you have to empty your savings account to buy a tank of gas, or millions are homeless becuase they can't afford rent or a house payment, or nobody can afford insurance on anything, or can't afford to pay for healthcare, or businesses are laying off multi-millions becuase they can't afford employees, or our government can't operate becuase it's broke, or people's lifelong savings are now worth nil.....then we'll see just how simplistic your view is. (for now)
No hydro, I did not see his movie, nor would I want to. Like others here, I know it's just common sense to understand what happens in an economy when the currency is devalued or hyperinflated. I truly hope you're joking around with your comments and that you understand as well.
"Laissez les bon temps rouler" (for now)
Posts: 1177 | Location: Tiger Country USA | Registered: August 06, 2008
So where do you guys see the dollar relative to the Euro, Pound, Yen, Yuan, Swiss Frank, Canadian dollar, barrel of crude and gold in the next six months?
Originally posted by hydragoat: So where do you guys see the dollar relative to the Euro, Pound, Yen, Yuan, Swiss Frank, Canadian dollar, barrel of crude and gold in the next six months?
We can relook at this thread in six months.
Not an economist, but I foresee a worthless dollar, and a Strong Euro and and even stronger Global currency, to be named later.
But not in 6 mo. - maybe 18 mo.
________________________________________________ -The most under appreciated artist, is the one who did not create. -The most under appreciated painter, is the one who never painted. -The most under appreciated writer, is the one that never wrote. -The most under appreciated, is the one who never did.
Originally posted by hydragoat: So where do you guys see the dollar relative to the Euro, Pound, Yen, Yuan, Swiss Frank, Canadian dollar, barrel of crude and gold in the next six months?
We can relook at this thread in six months.
It's hard to predict exactly where we will be at an exact time because there are so many variables. I can see a direction that we are headed, and a need to change course. For example, if the FR didn't lower interest rates when the tech bubble burst, we would have had a "run of the mill" recession, and been don with it. But they DID lower interest rates to fuel the markets, which caused the housing bubble. When it burst, we still had a credit bubble (which soon burst), and we continued to lower interest rates down to zero. The thing the FR needs to learn is that the market NEEDS to correct itself. You can put off the correction until later, but all that does is cause it to build up and compound on future corrections. What they need to do is raise interest rates, which will make the recession worse, but add value to the dollar. This is something that they have been unwilling to do in the past, but if they have a change of heart, it could change our direction. Also, if the end of the petrodollar comes to fruition, it could be devastating to the dollar. If not, it wont. If the UN decides to remove the dollar as the world's reserve currency, it would be devastating to the dollar. If not, it wont. We could always threaten to bring all our troops home, leaving Asia to deal with those nut jobs they have over there running Iran and North Korea.
If things remain the as they are, I can see a 2 dollar Euro and $1500 gold by this time next year. If the world dumps the dollar, it can be much worse. If the Fed dumps this Keynesian model, and raises interest rates the dollar could be much better, but at the cost of economic recovery.
Oil, that's a whole different story. That REALLY depends on what happens with the petrodollar and world consumption, which requires a worldwide economic recovery. Some economists believe that we will see $200 a barrel oil by the end of 2010, which will cause corporations to start building local manufacturing plants, as paying workers HERE will be cheaper than transporting stuff from China and Indonesia. I'm not %100 sure I agree with this or not. I am still contemplating. There's a lot of baggage that comes along with $200 a barrel oil.
"Let's stop the hysterics about the freedom of Cubans – which is not our government's responsibility – and consider freedom of the American people, which is. The point being: it is Americans who live in a free country, and as free people we should choose whom to buy from or where to travel – not our government."
-Ron Paul
Posts: 590 | Location: Northern NJ/East Hampton, NY | Registered: December 21, 2003
gentlemen, the USD has serious problems. the fed can not raise rates nor can they drain the liquidity they have created. your banking system is functionally bankrupt, and without the government spending trillions to support your economy, this would be depression redux.
i'm not saying the USD will disappear in a hyper-inflationary collapse, but there is no choice but for the value to drop to sort out the imbalances that have been created.
the last 20+ years of economic growth in the US were never real, and should never have happened. it was all based on easy money and rapid credit growth. you're seeing the adjustment process happening now.
the only question is HOW far and HOW fast the USD will drop. if the world drops the USD as a reserve currency, it can't happen all at once, and probably will stay in a basket of currencies as reserves. and again, reality is that share of US global GDP will continue to fall as China, India, Brazil grow their economies faster than the
i wouldn't hesitate to say that soon enough, the USD will be trading at historic lows against the Euro, Yen, Can$, Aussie$, Swiss Franc, and that OIL will be trading again over $100/bbl, and gold will be making new highs.
gold however, is going up in all currencies. for example, GOLD, in the last 10 years has gone up most in USD and GBP. since gold made it's lows in 1999, ... but not as much in other majour currencies.
USD 1999 $252.80, 2009 $1050 +316% gain GBP 1999 157, 2009 662 +320% gain
gold however, is going up in all currencies. for example, GOLD, in the last 10 years has gone up most in USD and GBP. since gold made it's lows in 1999, ... but not as much in other majour currencies.
USD 1999 $252.80, 2009 $1050 +316% gain GBP 1999 157, 2009 662 +320% gain
Yes, and the dollar is directly related to the increase in value in the other currencies. It's a simple supply/demand relationship. The lower the dollar goes, the more people retreat to gold. this decreases supply, not only in America, but everywhere, making it more desirable for people in other countries to buy it. This is exactly why I prefer gold over foreign currencies, although it is not a bad idea to trade them as well for diversification.
"Let's stop the hysterics about the freedom of Cubans – which is not our government's responsibility – and consider freedom of the American people, which is. The point being: it is Americans who live in a free country, and as free people we should choose whom to buy from or where to travel – not our government."
-Ron Paul
Posts: 590 | Location: Northern NJ/East Hampton, NY | Registered: December 21, 2003
Originally posted by orange walk: i'm not saying the USD will disappear in a hyper-inflationary collapse, but there is no choice but for the value to drop to sort out the imbalances that have been created.
We have been used to large growth imbalances going back as far as the post-WWII era, but those were REAL. Those were pre-globalization. We wanted to maintain them in the face of globalization, which is an impossible task, so we faked it. Now the other guys at the table are calling our bluff.
"Let's stop the hysterics about the freedom of Cubans – which is not our government's responsibility – and consider freedom of the American people, which is. The point being: it is Americans who live in a free country, and as free people we should choose whom to buy from or where to travel – not our government."
-Ron Paul
Posts: 590 | Location: Northern NJ/East Hampton, NY | Registered: December 21, 2003
gold however, is going up in all currencies. for example, GOLD, in the last 10 years has gone up most in USD and GBP. since gold made it's lows in 1999, ... but not as much in other majour currencies.
USD 1999 $252.80, 2009 $1050 +316% gain GBP 1999 157, 2009 662 +320% gain
Yes, and the dollar is directly related to the increase in value in the other currencies. It's a simple supply/demand relationship. The lower the dollar goes, the more people retreat to gold. this decreases supply, not only in America, but everywhere, making it more desirable for people in other countries to buy it. This is exactly why I prefer gold over foreign currencies, although it is not a bad idea to trade them as well for diversification.
I'm curious, when you say that you prefer gold are you actually purchasing gold or are you purchasing something that is tied to the price of gold?
Sometimes when spelunking through the psyche the little miners light goes out....
