Nov 22nd 2007 | HAVANA From The Economist print edition Getting ready for a post-Castro bonanza
THE American businessman at this month's international trade fair in Havana was full of excitement about the communist island's investment prospects as its long-serving president ails. “It's a perfect storm,” he enthused: “Fidel will soon be gone, and a Democratic president will be in the White House. Bye-bye embargo!”
Few of the foreign investors who have spent years struggling to make money in Cuba, caught between American trade restrictions, communist bureaucracy and preferential deals for key allies such as China and Venezuela, see it quite so simply. But even the most jaded are wondering whether things might be looking up. Hopes have been raised by news of a huge deal in the making. It could be the shape of things to come.
After two years of negotiations, plans are moving forward for Dubai Ports World, a partly state-owned company in the United Arab Emirates, to invest $250m in converting the decrepit port in Mariel, just west of Havana, into a modern container facility. A formal feasibility study has been commissioned.
The choice of Mariel, one of the closest points in Cuba to the United States, is significant. The port is best known as the setting for a massive boatlift in 1980 when, over a period of six months, 125,000 Cubans set off in flimsy rafts as Fidel Castro turned a temporary blind eye to those wanting to leave his poor one-party state. They were picked up and taken to the United States by a flotilla of American yachts.
Mariel appeals to international port operators for the same reason—its proximity to the United States. “This deal isn't just about getting goods to Cuba,” said one analyst who had studied the project. “It's about getting into the US market.” American ports are close to capacity, and environmental restrictions make any big expansion of existing terminals unlikely. In a post-embargo world, Mariel, which is expected to be open for business by 2012, would be a well-positioned hub. Goods could be transferred from the big container ships arriving at the port to smaller vessels which could then reach dozens of harbours in the southern United States.
Dubai Ports World refuses to comment on the deal. But there can be little doubt that the company is eager to gain a foothold, if not actually in the United States, then as close as possible to it. Last year it was forced to abandon plans to operate six big ports in the United States after Congress expressed security concerns. Although the United Arab Emirates is considered a close American ally, two of the hijackers involved in the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks were UAE nationals.
Does Cuba's acceptance of the Mariel project mean that the country's top brass is beginning to plan seriously for the day when the American embargo might end? That might appear premature, given that the Bush administration has explicitly ruled out unrestricted trading with a Cuban government under Raul Castro, Fidel's brother and presumed successor, and that only one American presidential candidate (Chris Dodd, a Democratic outsider) has called for a complete end to the embargo.
All the same, there is evidence that Cuban officials do believe that the days of the bloqueo (as they refer to the embargo) are numbered. The Cuban ministries that deal with foreign investment, known by their Orwellian abbreviations of MINVEC and MINFAR, have recently been putting the word out to foreign investors that tenders are welcome for a raft of projects. Theme parks, super-yacht marinas, golf courses, even airlines—all apparently geared to a future American market too—feature prominently on the list.
An end to the embargo could provide a bonanza to investors with assets in Cuba that would appeal to American corporations. The paltry returns from, say, a share in a Havana hotel would be dwarfed by the value that could be realised by selling that stake to an American hotel chain. “That's the game plan,” admitted one Havana-based businessman. “But,” he added, “so is patience.”
This would be too easy a solution. The Economist magazine is way off base in this case as it would take more than a port to rebuild the economy and shore up the broken down infrastructure as well as settle the outstanding land and business claims. There are too many votes in South Florida to risk an easy solution.
One can only hope, for the sake of the United States and the world.
You got that right, let's elect a democrat! Free healthcare for everyone including illegals, free abortions on demand and high taxes! That'll solve all the worlds problems!
"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." George Washington
Posts: 4418 | Location: Ohio | Registered: July 20, 2007
One can only hope, for the sake of the United States and the world.
You got that right, let's elect a democrat! Free healthcare for everyone including illegals, free abortions on demand and high taxes! That'll solve all the worlds problems!
No let's elect a republican! Too bad Bush can't serve again! A perpetual and pointless war, billions of dollars wasted, thousands of American lives lost, no healthcare and a currency and economy down the shitter!
-------------------------------- When the facts change, I change. What do you do, sir? - Lord Keynes
People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use. - Kierkegaard
Posts: 2818 | Location: the GTA | Registered: November 28, 2007
One can only hope, for the sake of the United States and the world.
You got that right, let's elect a democrat! Free healthcare for everyone including illegals, free abortions on demand and high taxes! That'll solve all the worlds problems!
No, let's elect a republican! Too bad we couldn't get Bush in again! We'd have a perpetual and pointless war, billions of dollars wasted, thousands of American lives lost, no healthcare, and our economy and currency dowh the toilet!
Okay Jeebus-I really don't like you and you haven't been here long. The "pointless war" you refer to, I have been engaged in more than once, being active duty military. Your comment is offensive and ignorant. I doubt you have done jack for your country as you probably hate it like most ignorant liberals. Secondly,our economy is not in the toilet, the stock market has had its strongest week in years and unemployment is a record lows.
"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." George Washington
Posts: 4418 | Location: Ohio | Registered: July 20, 2007
One can only hope, for the sake of the United States and the world.
You got that right, let's elect a democrat! Free healthcare for everyone including illegals, free abortions on demand and high taxes! That'll solve all the worlds problems!
No, let's elect a republican! Too bad we couldn't get Bush in again! We'd have a perpetual and pointless war, billions of dollars wasted, thousands of American lives lost, no healthcare, and our economy and currency dowh the toilet!
Okay Jeebus-I really don't like you and you haven't been here long. The "pointless war" you refer to, I have been engaged in more than once, being active duty military. Your comment is offensive and ignorant. I doubt you have done jack for your country as you probably hate it like most ignorant liberals. Secondly,our economy is not in the toilet, the stock market has had its strongest week in years and unemployment is a record lows.
Well that's ok, I don't like you either. But don't tell me that I hate my country. I don't hate my country. I love my country. Don't equate "country" with "current political administration". Just because I hate conservative ignorance and misguided political beliefs doesn't mean I hate my country.
(Besides, the accusation of "hating America" is a rather predictable last bastion of defense for conservative vitriol. Very lame and unbecoming.)
Second, I appreciate that you have served in active military duty. I have a level of respect for US soldiers overseas, and also feel sadness for them, as I feel many lives have been wasted for no reason, and that they are away from their families for no reason.
Third, our economy is in the toilet. Unlike you, I am an educated individual, and my focus of study was economics. As an economist, I find your comment ignorant and offensive. The strength of the economy is not based on one week's worth of stock market performance, and unemployment is not at a record low.. not sure where you're getting your information from. Please tell me it wasn't Fox News...
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Jeebus,
-------------------------------- When the facts change, I change. What do you do, sir? - Lord Keynes
People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use. - Kierkegaard
Posts: 2818 | Location: the GTA | Registered: November 28, 2007
One can only hope, for the sake of the United States and the world.
You got that right, let's elect a democrat! Free healthcare for everyone including illegals, free abortions on demand and high taxes! That'll solve all the worlds problems!
No, let's elect a republican! Too bad we couldn't get Bush in again! We'd have a perpetual and pointless war, billions of dollars wasted, thousands of American lives lost, no healthcare, and our economy and currency dowh the toilet!
Okay Jeebus-I really don't like you and you haven't been here long. The "pointless war" you refer to, I have been engaged in more than once, being active duty military. Your comment is offensive and ignorant. I doubt you have done jack for your country as you probably hate it like most ignorant liberals. Secondly,our economy is not in the toilet, the stock market has had its strongest week in years and unemployment is a record lows.
Well that's ok, I don't like you either. But don't tell me that I hate my country. I don't hate my country. I love my country. Don't equate "country" with "current political administration". Just because I hate conservative ignorance and misguided political beliefs doesn't mean I hate my country.
Second, our economy is in the toilet. Unlike you, I am an educated individual, and my focus of study was economics. As an economist, I find your comment ignorant and offensive. The strength of the economy is not based on one week's worth of stock market performance, and unemployment is not at a record low.. not sure where you're getting your information from. Please tell me it wasn't Fox News...
Oh yeah, I forgot how the liberal mind works...Active Duty Military=Uneducated individual.
You're educated and call yourself "jeebus" LMAO!
"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." George Washington
Posts: 4418 | Location: Ohio | Registered: July 20, 2007
Your statement of active military duty has nothing to do with it. I know several well-educated people that have pursued military service, and I have a great deal of respect for them. It was your comments about ratings being an indicator of truth in the media, and your suggestion that minority opinions are wrong that tipped me off to your lack of education.
-------------------------------- When the facts change, I change. What do you do, sir? - Lord Keynes
People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use. - Kierkegaard
Posts: 2818 | Location: the GTA | Registered: November 28, 2007
Originally posted by Jeebus: Your statement of active military duty has nothing to do with it. I know several well-educated people that have pursued military service, and I have a great deal of respect for them. It was your comments about ratings being an indicator of truth in the media, as well as your suggestion that holding a minority opinion means you must be wrong is what tipped me off to your lack of education.
Really, I have better things to do than argue with liberals...good luck and welcome to the forum. You've proved my point already.
"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." George Washington
Posts: 4418 | Location: Ohio | Registered: July 20, 2007
Originally posted by Presley: Really, I have better things to do than argue with liberals...good luck and welcome to the forum. You've proved my point already.
That's ok, I knew you couldn't hack it. Go argue with conservatives. It's much easier to argue with people who share your opinions, I suppose.
Thanks for the welcome! (And for proving your point, whatever it was?)
-------------------------------- When the facts change, I change. What do you do, sir? - Lord Keynes
People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use. - Kierkegaard
Posts: 2818 | Location: the GTA | Registered: November 28, 2007
There are several factors responsible for the weakening dollar. You probably won't hear about them on Fox News though, because the only people who express dissatisfaction with the economy are "ignorant liberals who hate their country."
-------------------------------- When the facts change, I change. What do you do, sir? - Lord Keynes
People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use. - Kierkegaard
Posts: 2818 | Location: the GTA | Registered: November 28, 2007
Let's say Hillary is elected President. How would this impact our ability to obtain CC's. Would she eventually lift the embargo? Very possibly, so you conclude that you will be able to readily obtain your now forbidden fruit. But, think further. She would also bring back the ridiculous proposed cigar tax and not likely cap it at $3 a cigar. So if she gets that legislation through, it would create an enormous black market for cigars, especially CC's which would then be ridiculously cheap by comparison to obtain online. So, there would be a massively stepped up enforcement effort by Customs to intercept cigars. Essentially the U.S. would morph into Canada vis-a-vis obtaining CC's at regular duty-free prices.
All very speculative, as no one really knows what will happen yet. Even assuming the embargo is lifted, it's unclear how that will influence the availability (and prices!) of CCs in the US.
-------------------------------- When the facts change, I change. What do you do, sir? - Lord Keynes
People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use. - Kierkegaard
Posts: 2818 | Location: the GTA | Registered: November 28, 2007
