now that we have a new president...
what do you think this means for the embargo in the next 4 years?

A. absolutey nothing

b. nothing - but less enforcement (clinton era rules)

c. gradual deconstruction(travel ban first) with some offical diplomatic contact?

d. total abolishment(embargo et al)- with of full diplomatic realtions?

I, myself, am guessing somewhere between B. and C.

colud we actually dare to dream that in our lifetime we could see an actual end to emargo? man would i love to vist cuba...

it really was bush II that used the OFAC to really drop the hammer, we say next to none of that under clinton...and i know obama has directly stated his willingness to
at least address this matter in a new way.

im pleasantly optomistic that there might be better days for us herfers...

Bf

I think "c" but I have always felt a sense that, if travel restrictions were relaxed on the part of the US, Cuba would do something to stem the tidal wave that would inundate it once Americans started to go there en masse...some sort of 'reverse' embargo of sorts. For one thing, the so-called 'exile' community sees it as an imperative that 'they' go back and 'reclaim' what they left behind once Fidel is dead (and he is...), and that's just not going to happen.

There's a saying in Cuba: "saliste, perdiste" which means, if you leave, you lose, and if those who left do try to come back, the people I've talked to about the possibility say that they'll leave a scorched earth and fight such efforts without mercy. And I believe them.

At stake isn't simply people who want to be able to, and who should be able to, travel wherever and whenever we want, even to Cuba. There is the whole other dynamic of this volatile group that is the so-called 'exile' community that, as a whole, really does feel righteous about throwing its might, weight and influence upon US foreign policy regarding Cuba, and now with Fidel Castro gone, and the prospect of an end of the embargo at our doorstep, the things we think about (a mojito at the Nacional; a cigar at the Partagas factory; a tour of the Museum of the Revolution; a day under palm trees on the beach; Cuban cigars on the shelves of our local tobacconist) are very, very far removed from the harsh reality of what the so-called 'exile' community sees not only as its agenda, but as its destiny.

These are interesting times. Unlike in other circumstances where relations are normalized with a former enemy, in the case of Cuba, there is a very proud, very stubborn, very influential, very volatile, group waiting to pounce, and that dynamic alone makes a transition for the future a difficult one. We shall see!

B

...read somewhere he's a cigarette smoker, don't know if its true or not.

quote:

Originally posted by SteveSur:
...read somewhere he's a cigarette smoker, don't know if its true or not.

He was -- he is trying to quit.

I actually think the answer could very well be C. He won by a hefty margin, so he does not have to cater to Miami "exiles." I don't see him maintaining the heavy-handed Bush approach.

"A", because he will want to run again in '08.

B - but the rules will change (less enforcement) in year 2 or 3. Too many other fish to fry first.

Abolutey an end to emargo.

Oh tay!

I haven't checked since yesterday, but the Democrats made substainial inroads in the Miami area, I thought. It's quite possible they will not attempt to change the embargo in order to curry favor with south Florida residents.

Don't forget that since the Helms-Burton Act, it now takes an act of Congress to remove the embargo. That's not going to be easy.

I hope he maintains it. Dropping the embargo will push prices even higher and prolly push quality into the basement.

Why DID GWB harden the travel restrictions on Cuban exiles living in the USA?
Was it prompted by the Cuban exiles? Or prompted by a stick it to Fidel policy?

The details from 2004 in cubasource.org
June 4: New US travel restrictions could cut travel by Cuban Americans to the island by as much as 40 percent - despite new Cuban rules making it easier for them to visit relatives in the island, a Foreign Ministry official said. Under new US regulations, Cubans living in the United States will be able to legally travel to the island only once every three years, rather than annually. "In the end, it is the Cuban family that suffers," said Benigno Perez, head of the Foreign Ministry's Department of Consular Affairs and Cubans Living Abroad. Perez spoke in an interview with the press. The rules also limit which relatives Cuban Americans can send financial assistance to. Now, Cuban Americans will only be able to help their children, parents, grandparents and siblings on the impoverished island - but not their cousins, aunts and uncles. (AP, 4/6/04)

I think he has bigger issues to deal with for the time being. I doubt it's very high on his list of priorities. I wouldn't expect any changes of any kind re: the embargo for awhile.

quote:

Originally posted by DCSmoker:
I hope he maintains it. Dropping the embargo will push prices even higher and prolly push quality into the basement.

Agreed... I say 'A'.

A

A, which is good so prices stay cheap!

I give it two years, then B

"C" -- by the end of President O's first of three terms.

For now I say A. If we are lucky later on B. Option C is possible but I don't see it as probable.

Easier travel would be nice.

quote:

Why DID GWB harden the travel restrictions on Cuban exiles living in the USA?
Was it prompted by the Cuban exiles? Or prompted by a stick it to Fidel policy?

Ancient news...but here's the deal: It came in 2 waves. First, following the report by Colin Powell, then Secretary of State, on the transition to a post-Fidel Castro Cuba, W had OFAC modify its policy, and restricted several categories of travel that had been legal. Then, following the next incarnation of that same report by Rice, W put down the hammer...he owed it to the so-called 'exile' community that got him elected, and OFAC further narrowed categories of travel, and came up with this thing about once every three year visits.

As a result, the charters that had been flying from NY and LA direct and non-stop to Havana went out of business - they're bread and butter were those visiting families. The thought was that, if you limit the access for travelers, the money they'd bring to family members would stop, and the funds necessary to feed the general coffers would no longer exist and Castro would be brought to his knees. Who suffered?? THE PEOPLE!! Here and there. Not Castro!

What Casto did in return was absolute, pure genius. He was just waiting for the right time, and W played right into his hands! In response to the restrictions, Castro declared that US currency would no longer be viable in Cuba...and that people had 30 days to exchange all their greenbacks for the new "Peso Convertible" on a 1:1 basis (Convertible Peso, fondly called by the people, the "chavito" or "funny money"). This chavito is a currency that was a pure invention of the State...it has no value on the open market or outside of Cuba...it was, in effect, a "voucher" for the people to use to buy stuff.

If the people did not convert 1:1 within that time (that was eventually extended a couple of weeks while they waited for more chavitos to be printed), then there would be (and there is...) a 20% surcharge on any conversions from USD! As a result, everybody dug out all the money they'd been saving up, and traded it in, lest they lose 20%...and all of a sudden, millions and millions of USD started to fill the treasury...and still do fill the treasury at a 20% windfall. With all the money in the bank, Cuba was thereupon in the black, totally solvent.

Add the fact that Chavez was selling Castro oil (no, not castor oil!!) at greatly reduced and subsidized rates...practically nothing...in exchange for Castro's pledge of doctors for Venezuela, Castro was sitting fat!! Did he pass this on to the people? HELL NO!! Instead, he put the screws to the people even more!!

While all this was going on, Castro RAISED the prices of virtually everything 20 - 30% across the board...he booted out foreign companies (the same ones whose commerce a decade earlier brought him out from the brink of economic ruin once the Soviets withdrew) hundreds at a time, and/or made it too difficult or costly for them to stay and remain viable...he closed down many hotels, reserving them exclusively for Venezuelans, and providing incentives for any world travelers to go to the resorts instead, where he could control their contact with the Cuban people (check out the deals you can still get on the all-inclusive resorts in the tourist areas!! that is why)...he discouraged outside contact by mandating that satellite TV owners turn in their dishes and decoders, and when they didn't, spies would go around under the guise of telephone repair technicians to locate cables and hidden boxes, arresting and fining those who would defy the order... It got ugly, and people fought for their MTV, that's for sure. People were pirating Direct-TV and Dish, and other service providers, through ingenious cable box techniques developed by resourceful engineers.

So, he closed down hotels, made incentives for resorts to control tourists and their contact with Cubans, raised prices on everything, made a bundle selling Venezuelan sweet crude, millions and millions of dollars suddenly overflowed in the bank, he booted foreign commercial concerns, created this chavito, all the while squeezing the life out of the Cuban people. The catalyst was W and his wise ideas. But Castro made sure (while he was alive) that anything that was done by the US to bring Castro to his knees was met with harsh consequences that affected the people, all the while pointing the finger at the US for all of Cuba's problems.

There IS an incentive, however, for Cubans to keep the illusion alive that Castro is still alive - the announcement of his death will create a whole new set of problems with the so-called 'exiles' who will storm the country hoping to reclaim their property.

A!

The hit to price, quality, and availability would be huge if it were to drop.