quote:

Originally posted by toscano:
Dear Mr. Savona.

I read with interest the question regarding the ‘breakdown of cigar sales over manufacturers’, and your answer.
I was trying to work on what I thought it was a much less challenging task, the breakdown by country, and to my surprise I had to realize that it was not so easy as well. I made some research over the Internet, magazines and then I asked some tobacconists both in the US and Europe. Surprisingly, it looked like nobody had any official useful number.

So, I tried to make some calculations starting from what I had and by making a few assumptions.

- US Cigar imports in 2005
321.6 million cigars, of which 179.5 from the Dominican Republic, 87.7 from Honduras, 50.4 from Nicaragua, and about 4 million from other countries. Most probably these numbers are still semi-official but if I am not wrong they have been already released by the Cigar Association of America, and they coincide with what was reported on Cigar Insider (3/7/06).

- Cuban production in 2005
In November 05, an officer of Habanos said that hand made cigars (including the Ediciones Limitadas) are 87% of Cuban production. Only 13% are machine made.
Lately another officer of Habanos said that excluding the US, Cuban cigars cover about 70% of the premium cigar market, and that in 2005 Cuba produced 160 million cigars.
This means that outside the US, about 138 millions are Cuban premium cigars and about 60 millions are non Cuban premium cigars (bringing the total production for non Cuban cigars to approximately 380 millions).

- Assumption #1
The numbers from Cuba are … for real.

- Assumption #2
Outside the US, the breakdown of non Cuban cigars between the Dominican Republic, Honduras and Nicaragua is comparable to the one related to the US market. This may be partially incorrect; my impression is that in Europe Dominican cigars are preferred (sometimes just known) more than Honduran and Nicaraguan. But I had to make an assumption.

- Assumption #3
I considered an additional couple of millions for those countries and cigars that are usually ignored by statistics related to premium cigars (Peru, USA, Italy, Switzerland, etc.).

I added some salt, water, mixed everything in the blender for a few seconds, cocked in the microwave oven for a minute or so and eventually I came out with some numbers (premium cigars):

- Dominican Republic: 210-215 millions
- Cuba: 137-142 millions
- Honduras: 100-105 millions
- Nicaragua: 58-62 millions
- Other countries: 3.5-5 millions



And finally the questions:

a) Do this numbers make any sense?
b) Will C.A. or C.I. write any data any time soon?
c) Are any numbers related to non premium cigars available anywhere?

Regards